Load Forecasting And Methods Of Load Forecasting

Load Forecasting And Methods Of Load Forecasting

The load forecasting is method used to predict the future loads.

For doing load forecasting the power system planner should think about the following basic question: 

1. Focus should be given to normal load demand or average load demand or peak load demand for load forecasting?
2. Whether load factor is need to be considered for load forecasting or treat them separately?
3. While load forecasting should the total forecast also need to be obtained? 
4. How to treat the historical load data for obtaining forecasted load?
5. Which factors need to be used for load forecasting?
6. How much weight is given to which load components for load forecasting?
7. For obtaining forecasted load which mathematical procedure should be used ? 

For load forecasting various methods are available each is having its own advantages.

Not one method guaranteed the accurate value of forecasted load.

Choosing the good and proper method needs good understanding of system. 

Depending upon the chosen time period of study load forecasting may be classified as

1. Short time load forecasting
2. Intermediate load forecasting and
3. Long-time load forecasting

Before going in detail it is necessary to know few concepts related to load forecasting which are described in next sections.

Table  describes the average power need of different household electrical equipment's by different loads.

                              Table

Electrical equipment              power consumed

Bulb                                             100 W

Tube                                            20-50 W

Fan                                              150 W

PC                                               100-200 W

Flour Mill                                    10-15 W

TV Set                                         200 W

Saw Mill                                      7 kW                             

Ice Candy Machine                   3 kW

Welding Set of 150A                 7 kW

Welding Set of 200A                 9 kW

Welding Set of 250A                 11 kW

Washing Machine                      800 W

Mixer                                            50 W

Refrigerator                                 600 W

Sugar Mill                                    1 kW   

Iron                                               1 kW

Arc Furnace                                400 kW

Space Heater                             180 W

Water Heater                              500 W

Dryer                                            1000  W

Air Conditioner                           900 W

Vacuum Cleaner                        800 W

Hot Plate                                    100 W